Remember the heady days of June 2016, when Hillary Clinton led Donald Trump in every one of twelve major polls — by a margin of 10 points, according to ABC and the Washington Post?
Or August 2016, after the Khan imbroglio, when Clinton was beating Trump by 7 points, according to USA Today/Suffolk? It was hardly an outlier.
Or October 2016, after the exposition of the “Billy Bush tapes,” when, coming up on the election, Clinton was beating Trump in virtually every poll? Of the 78 polls started after September 21, 2016, 73 had Clinton winning, four had Trump winning, and one was a tie.
At the time, I said, in two articles that Trump would be the 45th president of the United States. I explained why.
Now, in June 2020, the same press corps has pronounced the Trump presidency dead, has held the funeral, and has lowered the coffin into the grave.
The problem? No corpse.
THE SIX PERCENT RULE: In 2016, I predicted that Trump could lose the popular vote by as much as 4% and still win the Electoral College.
This is because roughly 4,000,000 Democrat voters in California, New York, and Illinois are in excess of the plurality needed to win those states. The difference between winning California by 50.0001% and winning it by 99% is meaningless in a presidential election.
In fact, Trump lost the popular vote by 2.1% in 2016 but won the Electoral College, 304 to 227.
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